Evaluation of the accuracy of GHI and DNI forecasts by IFS and Harmonie models over Spain

By 07/07/2016
Authors

Jose L. Casado-Rubio, Isabel Martínez, María Postigo, M. A. Revuelta, Cristina Robles-González, Carlos M. Fernández-Peruchena, Martin Gastón3

Type of presentation

Poster

PreFlexMS workpackage

WP4: Weather forecasting and measurement for renewable energy predictability

Brief description

Traditionally, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have not included in their forecasts the direct solar irradiance, a key variable for the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) industry. As NWP models are constantly improving, this situation has changed during the past few years, and nowadays many models forecast this parameter. In particular, the two main high resolution models used by AEMET - the global model Integrated Forecast System (IFS), developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the mesoscale model Harmonie (Hirlam Aladin Regional/Meso-scale Operational NWP In Europe), already forecast the direct horizontal irradiance, as well as the global horizontal irradiance. The objective of this work is to verify the forecasts from both models (IFS and Harmonie) against observations measured by the AEMET radiation network, composed by several stations distributed over Spain, and to improve their accuracy by means of post-processing techniques.

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Create Date07/07/2016
Last Updated07/07/2016