Increasing the temporal resolution of direct normal solar irradiance forecasted series

By 07/07/2016
Authors

Carlos M. Fernández-Peruchena, Martin Gastón, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Isabel Martínez Marco, José Antonio García-Moya, José L. Casado-Rubio

Type of presentation

Oral

PreFlexMS workpackage

WP4: Weather forecasting and measurement for renewable energy predictability

Brief description

We propose a novel locally-adapted procedure for high-frequency DNI forecasting that combines low-frequency NWP models outcomes with local high-frequency DNI dynamics. In particular, this work explores a methodology that connects these two extremes, proposing a hybrid approach in which low frequency NWP outcomes act as boundary conditions (assuring a physical consistency with site climatic behavior) and are supplemented with Dynamic Paths of local high frequency DNI series (assuring a statistical reproduction of site high frequency dynamics). Hence, this procedure takes advantages of the strengths of both methods by minimizing the effects of their shortcomings. This paper focuses in particular on the high frequency (1-min) characterization and generation from low frequency (3-h) DNI series.

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Create Date07/07/2016
Last Updated07/07/2016