WP4: Weather forecasting and measurement for renewable energy predictability

This work package contains all tasks related to meteorological forecasts and their evaluation. The goal is to determine the levels of accuracy obtained in the state-of-the-art forecast and further adapted methods for forecasting DNI obtained under different conditions as e.g. variable aerosol loads, cirrus clouds or cumulus clouds. A complete forecasting system providing deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of DNI (direct normal irradiance) and GHI (global horizontal irradiance) will be implemented. The work package will also evaluate the impact of the radiation forecasts in the optimization of plant operation. This work package is led by: DLR.

Objectives:

  • Specification of weather data requirements and parameters for optimised scheduling algorithms
  • Selection of world-wide validation sites covering different meteorological regimes
  • Implement and evaluate a deterministic and probabilistic forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction and post-processing using ground data
  • Comparison of operationally available weather forecasting data in various geographies to select the concept for each geographical region
  • Evaluate the overall weather forecasting concept in the dispatch optimiser
  • Assess the market value and commercialization channels of the selected methods for different geographical areas
  • Support WP5 in setting up a dataflow between weather services and dispatch system of the plant